Time For Some Predictions

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Ok, for what they’re worth, here are my 3 predictions for 2021.

1. Bitcoin Is Where The Action Is In 2021

Ok, everyone knows about the price rise (as at 31/12/20 it’s at around the $USD1950 mark). However, as I’ve said in previous issues, it’s also where all the smartest people in this space gravitate towards. To me, this is a leading indicator as to where the real advances are going to be. With segwit, nimble-wimble, sidechains and the lightning network all looking like they could be production ready (well maybe not nimble-wimble) in 2021 it’s going to be a cracker of a year for Bitcoin.

2. Banks Give Up On Blockchain Tech (maybe in 2021)

I’m going to hedge a little on this one as it may end up being 2021.

I’ve been talking about this for a little while now, but I think we’ll see a number of banks throw in the towel on their blockchain labs and PoCs. I think many will realise that blockchain tech solutions can’t be architected as over the top layers solutions on legacy systems — well they can, but it’s sort of like polishing a turd. At the end of the day it’s still a turd.

Given the number of shiny things in the FinTech space, I think many will start to shift resources towards other projects and slowly back away from blockchain investments they’ve made in the last two years.

Having said this, I do think a startup/challenger bank will end up building a native blockchain instrumented backend that’ll show what the true capabilities of running your infrastructure on a chain look like — although maybe not in 2021.

See also  The Average Bitcoiner's Take On The Fork

3. ICO Fever Cools Down As We Start To See A Few Go Belly Up

Given how hot ICOs have been this year it seems that 2021 is shaping up to be an even bigger year. However, I do think in 2021 we’ll see a few small craters being created by the ‘scam coin’ issuances we’ve seen this year. To me, it’s inevitable that a few of the ICOs we’ve seen in 2021 go under and leave ‘investors’ high and dry.

Although there is no shortage of people ready to spin up an ‘appcoin’ there still hasn’t proven to be a legitimate reason for most of them and ultimately this is where the problem lies — utility. For the most part, they lack utility or don’t solve a real problem in a 10x better way. This is why I think they ultimately fail. Although, regulators could also be another problem ICOs face in 2021.

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